MONSTER! 'Shrek 3' Fairy Tale $39M Fri; On Track For Biggest 'Toon Opening Ever; May Boast 3rd Biggest Opening Wkd Ever

SATURDAY AM: I'm told Shrek The Third is heading to a whopping $125 million-$130 million opening weekend. The Dreamworks Animation 'toon starring Mike Myers and Cameron Diaz earned $39.1 million Friday from 4,122 theaters. Either way, the threequel is way bigger than Shrek 2 and on its way to becoming the biggest 'toon opening ever. Yet the movie received awful "Shrek The Drek" reviews: out of 115 reviews on RottenTomatoes.com, 65 were spoiled. But there was pent-up demand for a fresh kiddie pic, and at only 93 minutes running time not only could theaters get in a lot of screenings but both parents and offspring could sit through the film without too much squirming. Weather will be a factor this weekend with rain expected on the East Coast. But the summer movie season is shaping up as a sizzler: if Shrek The Third's numbers hold, it could boast the 3rd biggest opening weekend of all time behind Spidey 3 and Pirates 2. DreamWorks Animation and Paramount continued lowering expectations: after saying all week they expected only a $90 mil Friday-to-Saturday opening, today the two studios were projecting only a $122.9 million weekend. It announced its take as $907K for Thursday and $38.1M for Friday. But rival studios were projecting the much higher closing weekend total. "The whole weekend equation comes down to today," an exec said, citing the all-important Saturday matinee factor for kiddie fare. Given the phenomenal box office performances of Spidey and Shrek, it's little wonder why studios keep churning out sequels. (Refresh for latest.)

Still hot in second place, Sony's Spider-Man 3 started its third week out doing $8M Friday for what should be a $26.5M weekend after expanding slightly into 4,324 venues. After that, the Top 10 movie numbers look anemic. Fox Atomic's 28 Weeks Later placed third, making $1.6 mil from 2,305 playdates for what should be a $5 mil weekend. DreamWorks / Paramount's Disturbia, even at the start of its sixth week playing, took in another $1.2 mil from 2,547 theaters for 4th place. It has a new cume of $68.8 mil and an expected $3.6 mil weekend. Universal's Georgia Rule scored #5 with $1.1 mil from 2,531 venues; projected is a $3.5 mil weekend. New Line's Fracture hangs in starting five weeks out for 6th place with $650K from 1,607 playdates and what should be a $2.4 mil weekend. Lionsgate's Delta Farce limped into 7th place, making $575K from 1,931 theaters for what could be just a $1.8 mil weekend. Disney's The Invisible starting its 4th week playing barely registering with $415K from 1,378 playdates for the 8th spot; expect a $1.5 mil weekend. Focus Feature's Hot Fuzz takes 9th making $365K from 973 theaters; a $1.3 mil weekend is projected. And, rounding out the Top 10, Paramount's Next eked out $300K from 1,008 venues and should take in $900K this weekend.

FRIDAY PM: I'm told that tomorrow's Shrek The Third matinees "are looking as big as Shrek 2's" which bodes well for the critically panned but reviewer proof 'toon. (Remember, the marketing campaign should have been, "Parents, it's only 93 minutes long!") DreamWorks Animation / Paramount say they're "on track for" a $90M weekend, though box office gurus tell me it'll be higher at $100M to $110M. Shrek 2 opened to $108M in 2004 in 4,223 theaters. But Dreamworks Animation chief Jeffrey Katzenberg is busy at the Cannes Film Festival downplaying talk of record ticket sales for his 'toon. The studio told me today it made $900,000 from Thursday night in supposedly "limited" release which it didn't report. But rival studios put the number at $1M to $1.2M.